Ukraine and Russia Nuggets (DRAFT)
a post in Rob's Blog by Rob O'Keefe
by Rob O'Keefe
also see Nuggets, Narratives, and Points of View
Note: This is just a TEST of using a format of a statement or assertion in bold with supporting statements underneath. The points about Russia or Putin are incomplete.
From an Obisidian/markdown point of view, there may be benefit in having each "nugget" in its own markdown file.
FEEL FREE TO EDIT BELOW!!
Putin is committing war crimes
- targeting civilian buildings
- targeting nuclear plants
- invading Ukraine at all, no matter what his justificaiton is
Putin Aggressively Pushes Beyond GeoPolitical Norms
- Chechnya (3 years after defeat goes back in)
- Using Radiological weapons in London to kill dissident
- Uses chemical weapons for assassination
- Goes into Syria
- Crimea
- Ukraine invasion
Putin Blindspots or Miscalculations
- Underestimated resistance by Ukrainians
- Over estimated capability of Russian military
- Misjudged morale of Russian troops
Putin Goals (Short and Long Term)
- Putin Stated Demands:
- Crimea recognized as part of Russia,
- Donbas republics recognized as independent,
- military neutrality by not joining NATO,
- far-right groups excluded from their forces
- Russia Negotiating Position
- Russia ceases fire and withdraws
- Ukrainian "neutrality" without NATO
- Kyiv keeps its army but can't host foreign bases
- Russian language gets legal status in Ukraine
- Unstated Goals
- disrupt NATO with mixed priorities (energy, economics)
- Weaken the US Dollar as the global settlement currency, in favor of.... China, Bitcoin, other?
- Align some countries against the USD: China, Saudi Arabia, India,
- Disrupt US political stability
- Take/Reclaim land that was formerly USSR
- What's most important to Putin
- afraid of Covid significantly (or even a targeted virus)
- amassed personal wealth so that is done
- Historical legacy - does not compare to Soviet leaders, but looks back to Czars pre-Soviet)
What was the state of Ukraine prior to invasion
- Military buildup - "defensive" missiles
- Far right active in Ukraine (Avov group)
- Zelensky had low approval ratings
Putin Misinformation and/or Narratives
- Nazis are taking over Ukraine
- If you don't speak Russian or you push back on Russia-fication, you are a Nazi and are against us
- US is aggressor
- Ukraine is an illegitimate, militaristic, Nazi-based regime
- Russia is offering peace, and a "new round of peace talks," not military attacks
- Russia has "established control" over many Ukranian cities, and has handily neutralized most of Ukraine's military infrastructure
West/US Narratives and/or Misinformation
- Ukraine is free to join NATO if they want
- Russia is the aggressor
- Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, Russian military has performed much more poorly than Russia expected
- Ukraine is putting up good defenses, Ukrainian military is being battered, but holding up better than anyone expected
- Ukrainian cities are battered, but not being conquered (yet)
Other Narratives and Unpopular Opinions
- the US Industrial complex wants a steady flow of conflict and war
- Russia is taking East Ukraine steadily, there is no way for Ukraine to prevail
- US has trained and armed right wing Nazis in Ukraine
- US will back away from Zelensky soon
How does Cyber fit into this?
- Are there, or will there be cyber attacks on the West?
Russian military is underperforming
- Putin does not care
- Mounting Russian casualties
What is Biden relationship with Ukraine
- this was his issue while he was VP to Obama
- He was long term member/leader of the Foreign Relations Committee